Against the Odds in Germany: Leverkusen vs Olympiacos

Eurokinissi: Giorgos Matthaios

Tuesday night. BayArena. Two goals down. For Olympiacos F.C., the equation is simple and brutal. Overturn a 2–0 first-leg deficit against Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the UEFA Champions League playoff second leg… or exit Europe’s elite competition. Romance says “anything is possible. ”History says “this is a mountain.”

Third Meeting. Same Scoreline. Different Story?

This will be the third meeting between the two sides this season.

• League phase: Olympiacos 2–0 Leverkusen (Costinha, Rodinei).

• Playoff first leg in Piraeus: Leverkusen 2–0 Olympiacos (brace from Patrik Schick).

Two games. Two clean sheets. Two-nil each way. People love to call 2–0 a “dangerous lead” but let’s inject some realism. Only two teams in Champions League history have ever lost a tie after winning the first leg away from home by two goals. Add to that:

• Just two home defeats in Leverkusen’s last 18 European home matches.

• A squad built for control, tempo and second-half punishment.

The size of the task facing José Luis Mendilibar’s men cannot be overstated.

Leverkusen Rotated. They’re Ready.

Leverkusen lost 1–0 away to Union Berlin at the weekend. On paper: a wobble. In reality: rotation. Schick, Poku and Vazquez all started on the bench and came on in the second half. Tuesday is the priority. Protect the lead. Control the tie. This is a side that rarely panics. Especially at home.

Olympiacos: Signs of Life

Olympiacos responded the right way domestically. A 2–0 win over Panaitolikos. A stronger second half. More control. Fewer hopeful crosses. More patience. Olympiacos' best performance in the league to date.

And then there's… Lorenzo Pirola. Last Wednesday in Piraeus, he was left bloodied after a collision with fellow centre back Panos Retsos; head split open, stitched up. Days later, headband on, he rises from a corner and scores with a header. Moments like that matter. They speak to mentality.

Then came the usual late cameo from Yusuf Yazıcı: introduced in the 83rd minute, and once again finding the net. There’s a cruel irony in that. Yazıcı has the shooting ability, the vision, the set-piece quality that could be decisive in Germany. He isn’t registered in the UEFA squad. And in a tie that may require one moment of madness? That absence stings.

The Tactical Question: Surprise or Familiarity?

One of the biggest issues in the first leg was predictability. Leverkusen had already faced Olympiacos earlier this season. They knew the pressing triggers. They knew the patterns. They knew the crossing tendencies. That’s why Diogo Nascimento’s performance against Panaitolikos caught the eye. Operating from the left, he didn’t simply cut inside and swing hopeful deliveries. He linked play. He looked for one-twos. He shot. He varied his movements.

Unpredictability.

Throwing him into a game of this magnitude would be bold but bold may be required. Podence, meanwhile, hasn’t quite looked himself recently. Could he operate as a second striker; a role he has played before in England and Saudi Arabia? The idea isn’t absurd. His ability to turn, drive at defenders and create chaos between the lines could open space for El Kaabi. Will Mendilibar make that call? Probably not. But the second leg demands imagination.

Midfield Balance: Bite or Control?

Expect Tzolakis in goal. A likely back four of Rodinei, Retsos, Pirola and Ortega. In midfield, Hezze and Mouzakitis are favourites after being rested at the weekend but there is a compelling argument for Hezze alongside Scipioni. More bite. More protection. More defensive security to allow attacking freedom ahead.

Up front, Podence, Gelson, Chiquinho and El Kaabi feels the most probable structure. A Taremi–El Kaabi partnership can't be ruled out either. But whether it offers the right balance is another debate. This tie will not be won through emotion alone. It requires structural perfection.

What Must Happen

Olympiacos must score early. Without an early goal, the tie likely drifts beyond reach. But even with one, perfection is required. Leverkusen are a second-half team. A large percentage of their Champions League goals this season have come after the break. They are comfortable absorbing pressure before accelerating when space appears. If Olympiacos overcommit recklessly, they will be punished. If they are too cautious, the clock becomes the enemy. It is a tactical tightrope.

The Weight of History and the Power of Belief

Bookmakers give Olympiacos a 3% chance of progressing. In 2024, after the 4–1 defeat to Maccabi Tel Aviv, the odds of lifting the UEFA Conference League were practically zero: around 0.1%.

And yet. European nights at Olympiacos have never followed logic. This club has lived on improbable moments. It has survived chaos. It has manufactured belief from nothing.

Three percent? As supporters, you take that every time.

Prediction: Madness or Magic?

Let’s embrace it. 3–1 Olympiacos in 90 minutes. Extra time chaos. Penalties.

Is it rational? No.

Is it likely? Also no.

But the Champions League is about magic, about moments written in stars rather than spreadsheets. And Olympiacos, when cornered, has a habit of rewriting probability.

One Final Word

To the supporters travelling to Germany: represent. Sing. Chant.Enjoy it. European nights are never guaranteed. Even in the face of the odds, they are to be lived. And whether this ends in heartbreak or history, one thing is certain: This club does not go quietly.

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